In 2025, Agency MBS benefited from a favorable macroeconomic climate, and investor sentiment continued to improve across the fixed income spectrum. From a monetary policy standpoint, the Fed continued on its gradual path to a neutral rate, delivering three interest rate cuts and reducing the federal funds rate by 75 basis points over the course of the year. As expected, the Fed also pivoted its balance sheet activity from quantitative tightening to reserve management as bank reserves reached an ‘ample’ level. Following the unprecedented 2022-2023 tightening cycle that combined aggressive interest rate hikes with significant balance sheet runoff, the Fed has now reduced the federal funds rate by 175 basis points since September 2024. This shift toward lower short-term rates and greater accommodation, along with greater fiscal policy clarity, a stable supply outlook for Treasury securities, and a greater anticipated share of short-term Treasury issuance, drove declines in interest rate volatility and a further steepening of the yield curve over the course of the year.

Agency MBS: positive backdrop remains intact