Perspectives
-
Monthly Macro Monitor: July 2026
Read More- Iran Conflict: The global geopolitical backdrop remained fragile as the Iran conflict continued through its fifth month. In early July, President Trump declared the ceasefire associated with the memorandum of understanding (MOU) executed between the U.S. and Iran in mid-June to be over, and military activity resumed. Oil prices and financial markets were volatile throughout the month, and the path to a final resolution remains uncertain. Despite this continued volatility, however, “[t]he economy is showing impressive resilience…even with recent shocks, the trends are positive and reveal solid growth,” as Fed Chairman Warsh noted during his July press conference.
- Employment: Key employment measures released in July were mixed. U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) declined significantly month-over-month and missed estimates. The unemployment rate improved slightly to 4.2%, below both the prior month’s level and the median consensus estimate, due primarily to a decline in the labor force participation rate.
- Inflation: Despite continued pressure from elevated energy prices, key inflation measures released in July declined month-over-month. While the Fed held interest rates steady in July, expectations for rate hikes continue to increase as the market prices in less certainty of taming inflation in the near term. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 100% probability of one hike and an approximately 40% probability of an additional hike by the end of the year.
-
Why Agency MBS: Market Snapshot
Read MoreAgency MBS assets benefit from compelling fundamentals and favorable attributes that make them a critical building block of any investment portfolio.
-
Monthly Macro Monitor: July 2026
Read MoreA quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.
-
The Fed Report: July 2026
Read MoreKey highlights from the July 2026 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.
-
The Earnings Extract: Q2 2026
Read MoreCommentary from our quarterly earnings call covering the macroeconomic landscape, the Agency MBS market environment, and our quarterly performance.
-
Monthly Macro Monitor: June 2026
Read MoreA quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.
-
The Fed Report: June 2026
Read MoreKey highlights from the June 2026 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.
-
Monthly Macro Monitor: May 2026
Read MoreA quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.
-
Monthly Macro Monitor: April 2026
Read MoreA quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.
-
The Fed Report: April 2026
Read MoreKey highlights from the April 2026 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.
-
The Earnings Extract: Q1 2026
Read MoreCommentary from our quarterly earnings call covering the macroeconomic landscape, the Agency MBS market environment, and our quarterly performance.