Perspectives

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: September 2026

    • Broad Bond Market Selloff: U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply in September as bonds sold off across the curve, with the 10-year yield climbing over 50 basis points to its highest level since 2007 and the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 2002. The move reflected mounting fiscal and supply concerns, persistent inflationary pressures and elevated energy prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East, and the market’s reassessment of the term premium required to hold duration. The increased Treasury buyback operations for longer-dated securities, which were announced in August and took effect on September 9, provided little offset to the volatility.
    • Employment: Key employment measures released in September were strong and reinforced the narrative of a solid labor market. August U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased by 162,000, significantly surpassing estimates, and June and July totals were revised up by 55,000 in aggregate. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, in line with estimates.
    • Inflation: Despite continued pressure from elevated energy prices, key inflation measures released in September were flat to lower on a year-over-year rate basis, though they remain above the Fed’s 2% inflation objective. Specifically, core CPI eased for the third month in a row, to 2.4% from 2.5% (in line with estimates), and core PCE of 3.0% was unchanged and came in below estimates. In addition, July core PCE, originally reported at 3.3%, was revised down to 3.0% following the implementation of methodology changes by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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    Monthly Macro Monitor: September 2026

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    The Fed Report: September 2026

    Key highlights from the September 2026 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: August 2026

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: July 2026

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    The Fed Report: July 2026

    Key highlights from the July 2026 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.

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    The Earnings Extract: Q2 2026

    Commentary from our quarterly earnings call covering the macroeconomic landscape, the Agency MBS market environment, and our quarterly performance.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: June 2026

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    The Fed Report: June 2026

    Key highlights from the June 2026 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: May 2026

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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