Perspectives

  • Monthly Macro Monitor: November 2024

    • In October, the U.S. nonfarm payroll employment report came in materially below estimates, representing a sharp decline from September; this report, however, has been heavily discounted due to the significant negative impacts of strike activity and Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
    • Key inflation measures – core CPI and core PCE – were generally consistent with expectations and continued to provide optimism for the long-term inflationary outlook.
    • Following the election in early November, interest rates rallied across the curve, and interest rate volatility declined to levels consistent with the pre-election period in September, reversing the substantial increases experienced in October during the run up to the election.
    • Against this backdrop, Agency MBS spreads to benchmark rates stabilized and, over the course of the month, tightened modestly toward the midpoints of the more recent trading ranges.
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