Perspectives
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Monthly Macro Monitor: January 2026
Read More- Following the shutdown-related delays in late 2025, economic data reporting largely returned to schedule in January with the exception of PCE data, which remains on a lag with December figures expected to be released in February. Despite potential timing distortions in the data, Chair Powell characterized the tension in the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability as having eased slightly at his January press conference as the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to employment have both diminished somewhat.
- As generally expected, the FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% at its January meeting, following three consecutive interest rate cuts in September, October, and December. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in a high probability of two interest rate cuts in 2026, as compared to the median expectation of one cut indicated in the Fed’s December Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
- At the end of the month, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, who previously served on the Fed Board of Governors from 2006-2011, to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair. While Powell’s term on the Fed Board of Governors extends through January 2028, his term as Chair ends in May 2026. He has thus far declined to comment on whether he plans to remain on the Board of Governors following the end of his term as Chair.
- Following a strong 2026, the macro environment for Agency MBS remained favorable in January, as interest rate volatility declined and Agency MBS spreads to benchmark rates tightened over the course of the month. President Trump’s announcement early in the month directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs) to purchase $200 billion of Agency MBS caused spreads to tighten sharply, but his nomination of Warsh drove moderate spread widening at the end of the month and offset some of the benefit of the GSE MBS purchase announcement.
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Monthly Macro Monitor: January 2026
Read MoreA quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.
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The Fed Report: January 2026
Read MoreKey highlights from the January 2026 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.
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The Earnings Extract: Q4 2025
Read MoreCommentary from our quarterly earnings call covering the macroeconomic landscape, the Agency MBS market environment, and our quarterly performance.
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Monthly Macro Monitor: December 2025
Read MoreA quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.
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The Fed Report: December 2025
Read MoreKey highlights from the December 2025 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.
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Monthly Macro Monitor: November 2025
Read MoreA quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.
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Monthly Macro Monitor: October 2025
Read MoreA quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.
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The Fed Report: October 2025
Read MoreKey highlights from the October 2025 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.
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The Earnings Extract: Q3 2025
Read MoreCommentary from our quarterly earnings call covering the macroeconomic landscape, the Agency MBS market environment, and our quarterly performance.