Perspectives
-
Monthly Macro Monitor: August 2026
Read More- Iran Conflict: The Iran conflict continued through its sixth month, and the 60-day negotiation window outlined in the U.S. and Iran’s memorandum of understanding (MOU) lapsed in mid-August without any formal follow-on extensions. Later in the month, the Administration pivoted to an economic and financial campaign entitled “Operation Economic Outcast,” which aims to “sever the economic lifelines that sustain the Iranian regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.” Oil prices and financial markets remained volatile, and the path to a final resolution remains uncertain.
- Employment: Key employment measures released in August were mixed. U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) declined month-over-month, posting the first monthly net job loss since February, and missed estimates. The unemployment rate improved slightly to 4.1%, below both the prior month’s level and the median consensus estimate, due primarily to a decline in the labor force participation rate, which hit its lowest level since early 2021.
- Inflation: Despite continued pressure from elevated energy prices, key inflation measures released in August were flat to slightly lower on a year-over-year rate basis and were in-line with consensus estimates. Core CPI eased to 2.5% from 2.6%, and core PCE was unchanged at 3.3%.
