Perspectives

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: June 2026

    • Iran Conflict: The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on June 17, 2026 to be utilized as a negotiating framework with the intent of formally ending the war within 60 days. Despite this important step, the global geopolitical backdrop remains fragile, and the path to a final resolution remains uncertain. While the Strait of Hormuz is technically open and energy pressures have eased somewhat, the normalization of global oil trade activity is expected to be gradual.
    • Employment: Key employment measures released in June remained strong. U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased month-over-month and significantly exceeded estimates. The unemployment rate remained unchanged, consistent with expectations.
    • Inflation: As expected amid elevated energy prices, key inflation measures released in June increased month-over-month. Concerns over lingering inflationary pressures, a hawkish Fed dot plot released in June, and Chairman Warsh’s press conference commentary have further increased market expectations of an interest rate hike in 2026. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 100% probability of one hike and an approximately 20% probability of an additional hike by the end of the year.
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    2025 Letter to Stockholders

    In his annual letter to stockholders, President, CEO & CIO Peter Federico provides a recap of 2025 performance and the outlook for AGNC in the year ahead.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: January 2026

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    The Fed Report: January 2026

    Key highlights from the January 2026 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.

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    The Earnings Extract: Q4 2025

    Commentary from our quarterly earnings call covering the macroeconomic landscape, the Agency MBS market environment, and our quarterly performance.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: December 2025

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    The Fed Report: December 2025

    Key highlights from the December 2025 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: November 2025

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: October 2025

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    The Fed Report: October 2025

    Key highlights from the October 2025 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.

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