Perspectives

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    The Earnings Extract: Q3 2026

    • Fixed income markets experienced significant pressure in the third quarter, particularly in the final weeks of September, as fixed income investor sentiment turned decidedly bearish, interest rates increased sharply, and interest rate volatility spiked. The instability in the Treasury market drove pronounced weakness in the Agency MBS market, and, as a result, Agency MBS was the worst performing sector of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index during the quarter.
    • Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, there are a number of reasons for optimism with respect to the outlook for Agency MBS once volatility in the Treasury market subsides, as the return profile of Agency MBS is more attractive at current valuation levels, the fundamentals for Agency MBS are more favorable today than they were at the start of the third quarter, and supply-demand technicals remain in balance. Together, these factors support a constructive outlook for Agency MBS performance.
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