monthly macro monitor

key trends for the agency mbs investor
APRIL 2025

  • Relatively positive trends in April’s inflation and employment data were overshadowed by the administration’s tariff announcements early in the month.
  • As a result of the greater than anticipated breadth and magnitude of the tariffs, stagflation and recession fears increased materially, in turn amplifying interest rate volatility and causing Agency MBS spreads to benchmark rates to widen.
  • The current coupon Agency MBS spread to a blend of swap rates reached an intraday level of 230 basis points in April, nearly attaining the peak of 235 basis points during the height of the Covid pandemic in 2020.
  • Agency MBS spreads have retreated from April highs, but they remain elevated as broad macroeconomic uncertainty is expected to persist over the intermediate term.

Key Rate and Spread trends

Important Disclosures
Federal funds rate data last updated April 30, 2025. Source: Federal Reserve.

Economic data last updated April 30, 2025. Core CPI and Core PCE exclude food and energy. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U.S. Treasury yield curve reflects month-end Treasury yields for each tenor and month shown. Source: Bloomberg.

Agency MBS spread to U.S. Treasuries and Agency MBS spread to swaps reflect the 30-year current coupon Agency MBS yield spread to a 50/50 average of 5- and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and a 50/50 average of 5- and 10-year SOFR OIS swaps, respectively. MOVE Index reflects the ICE BofA Move Index. Each chart is shown over the trailing 12 months ended April 30, 2025, and each monthly change (rounded to the nearest whole number) reflects the difference between April 2025 month-end data and March 2025 month-end data. Source: Bloomberg.

Data and commentary, including thoughts, opinions, and outlook of AGNC Investment Corp. (“AGNC”) management, are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.

Investment in AGNC involves risks and uncertainties that may cause future performance to vary from historical results or any forward-looking commentary provided. Please refer to our annual and quarterly reports on file with the SEC and available on our website or at www.sec.gov for more information about AGNC, including material risks, other factors that may affect future performance, and notices regarding forward-looking statements. AGNC disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking commentary. Stockholders and other interested parties may sign up to receive AGNC’s news, perspectives, and other types of email alerts by clicking the Subscribe link below.

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