The Fed report
highlights from The FOMC Policy Update
MARCH 19, 2026
Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its statement and held a press conference following the conclusion of its March meeting.
FOMC Policy Updates: Key Highlights
- Target Range Maintained: For the second consecutive meeting, the FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. The FOMC decision was not unanimous, as Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted to lower the target range by 25 basis points.
- Geopolitical Risk Integration: The Fed’s statement was largely consistent with its statement from the January meeting, but the FOMC did note that “[t]he implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.”
- Economic Projections Update: While the Fed’s median expectations of one 25 basis point rate cut in each of 2026 and 2027 was consistent with the December projections, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) reflected expectations for “somewhat stronger” GDP growth and more persistent PCE inflation than the previous SEP.
notable commentary
- Dual Mandate and Monetary Policy Stance: Chair Powell characterized the current stance of monetary policy as “appropriate” to achieve its dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. Despite the recent weakness in jobs reports, Chair Powell pointed out that the unemployment rate (4.4%) was “little changed in recent months.” With respect to inflation, Chair Powell remarked that, while some progress had been made, it was “not as much as [the Fed] had hoped,” as inflation remained “somewhat elevated.”
- Middle East Conflict and Historical Context: In both his prepared remarks and in response to questions, Chair Powell noted that it was too early to assess the ultimate impact of the current Middle East conflict, though surging oil prices would likely push inflation higher in the near term. Powell pushed back on 1970s stagflation comparisons, however, noting significantly elevated unemployment and inflation measures in the 1970s relative to today.
- Chair Powell’s Future: Finally, Chair Powell stated that he intended to remain at the Fed until the Justice Department investigations into him and the Fed concluded, though he did not address whether he would remain through the conclusion of his 2028 term to the extent the Justice Department investigations ended prior to that date.
Important Disclosures
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