Perspectives

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    The Earnings Extract: Q1 2026

    • Agency MBS performance in the first quarter was driven by two divergent macroeconomic themes. In January and February, the administration’s focus on reducing interest rate volatility, maintaining mortgage spread stability, and improving housing affordability drove strong performance across the broader fixed income complex and Agency MBS specifically. This favorable investment environment was, however, quickly eclipsed in March by the war in Iran and the potential for more widespread conflict in the Middle East.
    • The associated increase in volatility and negative shift in investor sentiment caused Agency MBS spreads to benchmark rates to widen, and, as a result, AGNC’s economic return on tangible common equity in the first quarter was (1.6)%.
    • Despite the quarter-over-quarter spread widening, Agency MBS generated a positive excess return to both U.S. Treasuries and investment grade corporate bonds in the first quarter, again demonstrating the diversification benefit of this high credit quality, fixed income asset class.
    • We continue to believe that many of the factors we cited at the beginning of the year remain positive catalysts for Agency MBS performance. As a result, our longer-term outlook for Agency MBS remains constructive, despite near-term challenges associated with heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic risks. Moreover, AGNC is well-positioned to capitalize on these favorable conditions and build upon our lengthy track record of generating strong risk-adjusted returns over market cycles for our stockholders.
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    2025 Letter to Stockholders

    In his annual letter to stockholders, President, CEO & CIO Peter Federico provides a recap of 2025 performance and the outlook for AGNC in the year ahead.

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