Perspectives

  • The Fed Report: September 2026

    • First interest rate hike since 2023. The FOMC voted unanimously to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% at its September meeting, marking the Fed’s first interest rate hike since July 2023.
    • Policy action consistent with market expectations. The Fed’s decision was in line with market expectations, as fed funds futures were indicating a greater than 90% probability of an interest rate hike at this meeting against the backdrop of persistently high inflation. The policy action was characterized as “support[ing] a timelier return to the Committee’s 2% [long run inflation] goal.”
    • Updated SEP released. The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) highlighted a less divided Fed, as two thirds of Fed officials forecast one additional rate hike this year to 4.00-4.25%, with less dispersion in potential interest rate paths relative to the June SEP. Chairman Warsh once again abstained from providing a forecast.
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