Perspectives

  • Monthly Macro Monitor: January 2025

    • Inflation measures released in January were in-line with prior month readings and consensus estimates, while the labor market showed signs of strength with a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in the unemployment rate.
    • As expected, the Fed did not deliver any material updates regarding the path of monetary policy at its January meeting and maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.50% in a unanimous decision.
    • Agency MBS spreads to benchmark rates were relatively stable in January against the backdrop of declining interest rate volatility and limited Agency MBS supply.
    • Over the near-term, however, financial market and macroeconomic uncertainty remains elevated as the new administration implements sweeping changes to tariff, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policy.
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