Perspectives

  • Monthly Macro Monitor: March 2025

    • Inflation measures released in March were once again mixed. February Core CPI was below consensus estimates and January levels, but Core PCE posted its largest monthly increase since January 2024. Weak consumer confidence and spending readings also indicated potentially weaker economic growth in the months ahead.
    • Agency MBS spreads to benchmark rates widened modestly in March, with much of the move occurring in the last week of the month. Importantly, Agency MBS continue to trade within the relatively narrow spread range that emerged in 2023.
    • At current spread levels, Agency MBS investments offer attractive return opportunities both on an absolute basis and relative to the broader fixed income universe. To the extent macroeconomic uncertainty drives a flight to quality, we believe assets like Agency MBS, which benefit from explicit government support, could outperform credit-centric fixed income assets.
    Read More