Perspectives

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: February 2026

    • Employment measures released in February were stronger than expected. U.S. nonfarm payrolls materially exceeded both consensus estimates and prior month levels, and the unemployment rate declined slightly month-over-month. The annual benchmark process revealed that job growth in 2025 was softer than initially estimated, resulting in a downward revision to the change in nonfarm payrolls from +584,000 to +181,000, a decline of 403,000 relative to previously published data.
    • Key inflation measures were somewhat mixed, as January core CPI declined month-over-month, in-line with expectations, while December core PCE increased and was higher than expected. PCE data is expected to remain on a lag until April, however, so timing distortions in the data remain possible.
    • Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting highlighted a continued divide among Fed officials regarding the path of near-term monetary policy decisions, as “several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target levels.”
    • This macroeconomic backdrop and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly toward the end of the month, drove an increase in interest rate volatility, a modest flattening of the yield curve, and a moderate widening of Agency MBS spreads to benchmark rates on a month-over-month basis.
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    Monthly Macro Monitor: February 2026

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: January 2026

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    The Fed Report: January 2026

    Key highlights from the January 2026 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.

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    The Earnings Extract: Q4 2025

    Commentary from our quarterly earnings call covering the macroeconomic landscape, the Agency MBS market environment, and our quarterly performance.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: December 2025

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    The Fed Report: December 2025

    Key highlights from the December 2025 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: November 2025

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: October 2025

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    The Fed Report: October 2025

    Key highlights from the October 2025 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.

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