Perspectives

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: March 2026

    • Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Markets: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated in March and drove significant financial market volatility throughout the month. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove a surge in oil prices, which is expected to have an ongoing inflationary impact.
    • Employment: Key employment measures released in March were weaker than expected. U.S. nonfarm payrolls indicated that the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, materially below consensus estimates and prior month levels, and the unemployment rate increased modestly month-over-month. Previously reported data for December and January were also revised lower by 69,000 total jobs.
    • Inflation: Key inflation measures released in March were generally consistent with expectations, but potential distortions in PCE data remain until these releases return to the normal release schedule in April. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, however, complicates the overall inflation picture, as soaring oil prices are expected to push inflation higher in the near-to-intermediate term.
    • Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy: As expected, the FOMC maintained the 3.50-3.75% target range for the federal funds rate at its March meeting. Chair Powell characterized the current stance of monetary policy as “appropriate” to achieve its dual mandate goals, while acknowledging that the “implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.”
    • Interest Rates and Agency MBS Spreads: This uncertain macroeconomic backdrop drove higher interest rates across the curve, elevated interest rate volatility, and wider Agency MBS spreads to benchmark rates on a month-over-month basis.
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    Monthly Macro Monitor: March 2026

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    The Fed Report: March 2026

    Key highlights from the March 2026 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: February 2026

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    2025 Letter to Stockholders

    In his annual letter to stockholders, President, CEO & CIO Peter Federico provides a recap of 2025 performance and the outlook for AGNC in the year ahead.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: January 2026

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    The Fed Report: January 2026

    Key highlights from the January 2026 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.

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    The Earnings Extract: Q4 2025

    Commentary from our quarterly earnings call covering the macroeconomic landscape, the Agency MBS market environment, and our quarterly performance.

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    Monthly Macro Monitor: December 2025

    A quick update on the market environment, including key rate and spread trends that are top of mind for Agency MBS investors.

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    The Fed Report: December 2025

    Key highlights from the December 2025 FOMC policy update along with our insights and takeaways.

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