Perspectives

  • Monthly Macro Monitor: November 2025

    • The federal government shutdown, which ended in mid-November, continued to delay key economic data releases. The most recent federal CPI and PCE reports were released in October and September, respectively.
    • September employment data, released over a month late, showed an increase in U.S. nonfarm payrolls and a generally stable unemployment rate relative to both consensus estimates and August levels. October employment data has not yet been released.
    • Uncertainty regarding inflation and the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts drove some intra-month volatility across interest rates and Agency MBS spreads, but volatility declined toward the end of November and month-over-month changes in these measures were relatively modest.
    Read More